Buy Till You Die Source -Dash format

How to use the Buy Till You Die Source -Dash format

This is a dashboard-format analytic that packages your donor data into a ready-to-solve Buy Till You Die model, using the BG/NBD and Gamma-Gamma framework from customer-lifetime-value analysis. It is built on the data from analysis QX176 (Buy Till You Die Source). Rather than just reporting history, it sets you up to predict the future behavior of each donor.

The BTYD Worksheet holds one row per donor with the four inputs the model needs: frequency (repeat gifts), recency (the time of the last gift, t_x), T (how long you have been observing the donor), and monetary value. The Solver Setup tab holds the BG/NBD and Gamma-Gamma parameters and the objective. You fit the model using Excel Solver, and the workbook then computes, per donor, the probability that they are still an active giver, their expected number of future gifts, and their predicted lifetime value.

An important scope note: this model works best as a predictor for bottom-segment donors, who tend to give more frequently and within a tighter range of gift amounts. It is not a reliable predictor of gift size for major or irregular donors, so you should apply it where its assumptions hold.

You should use this when you want a forward-looking, probabilistic view of your recurring donor base rather than a backward-looking summary, and it is best reviewed by an analyst comfortable running Solver. Use the P(Alive) and predicted-value outputs to prioritize retention spend on donors who are slipping but still likely active, and to set expectations for future revenue from your frequent-giver base.

Measure success by how well the predicted future gifts track actual behavior over the following year, and by improved retention among donors the model flags as at-risk but still alive.

Analytic ID: QX176

Analytic Name: Buy Till You Die Source -Dash format

Focus: 1.8: Foundational Model/Projections; 1.7: Tenure & Lifetime Value (LTV) Analysis

Type: Dashboard Style

Segments: All/None specified

Description: This analysis is designed to create a foundational dataset for employing Buy Till You Die (BTYD) models, which are predictive tools used to estimate future donor behavior based on past actions. The analysis draws from the Gifts data, summarizing key metrics for each donor. The strategic value of this analysis lies in its ability to guide targeted donor engagement and retention strategies. Applying these insights can include designing targeted campaigns for different donor segments or refining solicitation strategies to increase engagement and retention.

Key Question: Can you provide a Buy Till You Die dataset from my data?

Action: Use this data in your Excel with a "GRG Nonlinear" Solver. When you open the Solver window (Data tab > Solver), look at the dropdown menu at the bottom labeled "Select a Solving Method." GRG Nonlinear (Select this one): This stands for "Generalized Reduced Gradient." It is designed for smooth, curved mathematical curves. Or, use with other software. Further instructions in file.